Thoughts From The Peanut Gallery

Randy Brunschwig President Excell Marketing & Procurement Group Denver, CO Author's Web Site Contact The Author

 Here are the ground rules:
1. Nothing I say is scientific.  It’s just the pulse of the world as I see it from my position as head of a dealer buying group.   

2. I talk to many business leaders, both in the industry and in the general economy, and they help to shape my opinions.

3. I hate to write.  Always have, always will.  I prefer to act and see results than to draft a projection.  However, I will make an exception this one time for my friend Mitchell and see what happens.

As I look out into the second half of 2010 and beyond, I am skeptical, at best, of the various prognostications about our economy.  We are all so desperate to forget about the disaster that has been our economy for the last years and move on to optimistic thinking, that all I seem to be hearing from the various industry participants is that 2010 will turn out to be a better year.  Some see our industry improving by mid year, some see it happening later.  Their major claims are that GDP is up, the media has told us we have exited the recession and that  the statistics seem to be getting better.

I don’t see it.  I want to be optimistic, but I just don’t see it.  I strongly believe there will be clear winners and losers, but I do not believe that we will see a rising tide carry all foodservice ships to more prosperous times in the next two years.  

I understand the statistics and I believe them to be deeply flawed.  Forget what you are reading and think about it for a minute.  There is high unemployment, brutalizing tax increases coming (expiration of Bush’s cuts and likely a new healthcare tax), higher savings, lower consumption, among other factors.  There is a strong possibility of the U.S. economy slipping back into recession in 2010/2011, due to lingering issues that have not been resolved from the recent financial quagmire.  I could go on.    

What makes us think we are out of the tunnel?  I know we want to feel good.  I want to feel good, too!  But, I just don’t see it.  Ahhh, please say I am wrong;  please prove me wrong.  I certainly would like nothing more than to be labeled a naysayer in a few years.  Perhaps our government will notice that Brown beating Coakleyin the Massachusetts’ senate race was the equivalent of the Boston Tea Party. Then again, perhaps not.

So, my advise to those that request it (yes, you very few), is to make sure your company has battened down the hatches for a turbulent ride.  If you have the opportunities to expand during these times, you clearly were a good manager over the prior five years and you will reap a myriad of rewards when we do finally come out of this trying period.  Those that placed winning bets during these times have always reaped huge rewards.  I hope your company is positioned to do so in the coming years!